December 19, 2011 - Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes edged up two points from a downwardly revised number to 21 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for December, released today. This marks a third consecutive month in which builder confidence has improved, and brings the index to its highest point since May of 2010.

“While builder confidence remains low, the consistent gains registered over the past several months are an indication that pockets of recovery are slowly starting to emerge in scattered housing markets,” said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Reno, Nev. “However, the difficulties that both builders and buyers continue to experience in accessing credit for new homes are holding back potential sales even in areas where economic conditions are improving.”

“This is the first time that builder confidence has improved for three consecutive months since mid-2009, which signifies a legitimate though slowly emerging upward trend,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “While large inventories of foreclosed properties continue to plague the most distressed markets and consumer worries about job security and the challenges of selling an existing home remain significant factors, builders are reporting more inquiries and more interest among potential buyers than they have seen in previous months.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Each of the HMI’s three component indexes registered a third consecutive month of improvement in December. The component gauging current sales conditions rose two points in the latest month to 22, while the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months edged up one point to 26. The component gauging traffic of prospective buyers gained three points to 18, which is its highest level since May of 2008.

Builder confidence primarily gained strength in the South in December, where a four-point gain to 25 brought that region’s HMI score to its highest level since March of 2008. A one-point gain to 16 was registered in the West, while the Midwest held unchanged at 24 and the Northeast slipped one point to 15.

The MPI, which tracks the sentiment of builders and developers about the conditions of the multifamily market on a scale of 0 to 100, increased from 44.4 in the second quarter to 47.3 in the third quarter—the highest reading since the fourth quarter of 2005.

The index provides a composite measure of three key elements of the multifamily housing market: construction of low-rent units, market-rate rental units and “for-sale" units, or condominiums. The index and all of its components are scaled so that any number over 50 indicates that more respondents report conditions are improving than report conditions are getting worse. In the third quarter of 2011, the MPI component tracking builder and developer perceptions of market-rate rental properties recorded an all-time high of 63.8, while low-rent units remained steady at 50.1. For-sale units rose to 31.9, the highest recording since the second quarter of 2006.

“Multifamily construction continues to be the bright spot in the overall housing market,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “While household formations have been below trend, those who are forming new households are becoming renters and this trend is likely to continue until consumers’ confidence returns.”

“Apartments and condominiums play an integral role in the overall housing market, now more than ever,” said Stillman Knight, chairman of NAHB’s Multifamily Council Board of Trustees and president and CEO of the Knight Company of Alexandria, Va. “The construction of these units not only brings jobs to local communities, but also provides an adequate stock of housing for areas with rapid population growth.”

Looking forward to the next six months, builder and developer expectations improved in the third quarter for market-rate rental properties and for-sale properties, up to 67.2 and 37.3, respectively. Expectations for low-rent units decreased slightly, to 50.2.

The Multifamily Vacancy Index (MVI), which measures the multifamily housing industry's perception of vacancies, decreased from 36.1 in the second quarter to 35.1 in the third quarter. With the MVI, lower numbers indicate fewer vacancies. The MVI has improved considerably since reaching a peak of 70.2 in the second quarter of 2009.

“NAHB’s Multifamily Production Index and Multifamily Vacancy Index have emerged as leading indicators for the multifamily market,” Crowe said. “For example, the MVI began to improve strongly in the third quarter of 2009, one quarter before a similar trend emerged in the Census Bureau’s rental vacancy rate for buildings with at least>five apartments. Although the Census shows a slight surge in rental vacancy rates in the latest quarter, our survey suggests that this will only be a temporary setback.”

November 17, 2011 - Single-family housing starts rose 3.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 430,000 units in October, according to newly released data from the U.S. Commerce Department. This improvement was somewhat masked by an 8.3 percent decline in multifamily starts that kept the combined number for nationwide housing production virtually flat at 628,000 units in October. Meanwhile, single-family permits also posted a measurable gain of 5.1 percent to 434,000 units in the latest report, which is their fastest pace since December of 2010. 

“The government’s numbers for October housing production are very much in keeping with what home builders have been telling us in our recent surveys,” said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Reno, Nev. “While we still have a long way to go toward a recovery, some signs of hope are emerging in certain markets where economic and job growth is occurring and where foreclosures have not been an overwhelming obstacle.” 

“The three-month moving averages for both housing production and permitting activity have been gradually rising since this spring, which is consistent with our forecast for slow improvement in market conditions through the end of this year and a positive sign that a more solid recovery will begin to take hold in 2012,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “That said, the improvements we are seeing are still limited to scattered local markets where economies are improving, and obstacles such as tight credit conditions for builders and buyers, appraisal issues stemming from new homes being compared to distressed properties, and consumer concerns about job security are definitely slowing the progression of both a housing and economic recovery.” 

While combined housing starts in October declined by a barely perceptible 0.3 percent to a rate of 628,000 units, the single-family sector posted a 3.9 percent gain to 430,000 units. Meanwhile, the more volatile multifamily sector posted an 8.3 percent decline to 198,000 units following an unsustainably large gain in the previous month. 

Combined starts activity was up in three out of four regions in October. Gains of 17.2 percent, 9.7 percent and 1.6 percent were registered in the Northeast, Midwest and South, respectively, while the West posted a 16.5 percent decline. 

Permit issuance, which can be an indicator of future building activity, rose 10.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 653,000 units in October on gains in both the single- and multifamily sides. Single-family housing permits rose 5.1 percent to 434,000 units – their highest level since December of 2010 – while multifamily permits rose 24.4 percent to 219,000 units – their highest level since October of 2008. 

On a regional basis, combined permitting activity was down 1.6 percent in the Northeast and 3.7 percent in the Midwest, but up 21.5 percent in the South and 5.4 percent in the West.

Source:NAHB.org

November 10, 2011 - Builder confidence in the 55+ housing market for single-family homes fell three points to 12 compared to the same period a year ago, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.

“The current state of the economy continues to affect buyers in the 55+ housing market,” said NAHB Chairman Bob Nielsen, a home builder from Reno, Nev. “The market remains weak given the many uncertainties people face in this economy. While potential buyers exist, they are hesitant to commit to buying a new home as they are concerned about selling their existing home at a fair price, due to low appraisals, an abundance of foreclosures and tighter mortgage lending criteria.”

The 55+ single-family HMI measures builder sentiment based on current sales, prospective buyer traffic and anticipated six-month sales for the 55+ single-family market. A number greater than 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. Among the index components, present sales dropped four points, to 11. Expected sales (six months into the future) dropped nine points, to 15. Traffic of prospective buyers rose two points, to 13.

While staying even compared to a year earlier, the 55+ multifamily condo HMI still remains weak with an index level of 10. Present sales dropped one point, to 9, while expected sales dropped four points, to 10. Traffic of prospective buyers rose two points, to 11.

Alternatively, 55+ multifamily rentals remain the strongest segment of the 55+ housing market, with the index measuring present demand rising 12 points to 40, and the one measuring future demand up 10 points to 42. Current and future production indices for 55+ multifamily rental units also jumped in the third quarter from a year ago, up 11 points (to 25) and 10 points (to 26), respectively.

“Multifamily rental units continue to be the bright spot in the 55+ housing market,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “However, with demand currently running ahead of production, as it has been for several quarters now, the risk of a shortage of rental units in select markets in the future looms larger as builders continue to have trouble obtaining credit to finance new construction.”

The index identifies metropolitan areas that have shown improvement for at least six months in housing permits, employment and housing prices. The following metros were listed in November:

Alexandria, LA, Amarillo, TX, Anchorage, AK, Bismarck, ND, Casper, WY, Cheyenne, WY, Corpus Christi, TX, Davenport, IA, Fairbanks, AK, Fayetteville, NC, Fort Collins, CO, Hinesville, GA, Houma, LA, Jonesboro, AR, Kankakee, IL, Lima, OH, McAllen, TX, Midland, TX, Monroe, LA, New, Orleans, LA, Odessa, TX, Pine Bluff, AR, Pittsburgh, PA, Sherman, TX, Sumter, SC, Tyler, TX, Waco, TX, Waterloo, IA, Williamsport, PA, Winston-Salem, NC

"Texas continues to dominate the list of improving housing markets in November, increasing its net number of entries to eight and continuing a trend in which energy-producing metros seem to be doing better than the average," said NAHB Chairman Bob Nielsen, a home builder from Reno, Nev. "Meanwhile, the geographic diversity of metros also continued to expand this month, with the states of Colorado, Georgia and Ohio all represented for the first time. This is further evidence that all housing markets are uniquely dependent upon local conditions, and some are leading the way toward an eventual, broader recovery."

"The November IMI remains heavily weighted by smaller cities, with Pittsburgh and New Orleans as the only major metros represented," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "This is indicative of the tough conditions that continue to prevail across much of the country, particularly in larger markets that have been hit hardest by job losses and foreclosures during the recession and that will take more time to heal. However, momentum is building in pockets of the country where energy and agriculture are the dominant industries and where consistent, measurable improvements in economic conditions are now becoming apparent."

The two metros that dropped off of the improving markets list in November were Iowa City and Wichita Falls. These metros experienced declines in their employment and permit data, respectively.

The IMI is designed to track housing markets throughout the country that are showing signs of improving economic health. The index measures three sets of independent monthly data to get a mark on the top improving Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The three indicators that are analyzed are employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation from Freddie Mac, and single-family housing permit growth from the U.S. Census Bureau. NAHB uses the latest available data from these sources to generate a list of improving markets. A metro area must see improvement in all three areas for at least six months following their respective troughs before being included on the improving markets list.

Please visit www.nahb.org/imi for additional data, tables and a list of 2011 future economic release dates.