The extremely harsh winter weather in January and February didn’t help pending home sales as it fell sharply to its lowest reading since April 2009 and the National Association of Realtors expects more declines in the future.
NAR’s pending home sales index fell to a seasonally adjusted reading of 90.4 which is 7.6 percent down from December but still 12.3 percent above January 2009’s index reading. The index is considered a forward-looking indicator or gauge of future sales because there is a one to two month lag from the contract signing to sales completion. A reading of 100 is equal to the average level of sales activity in 2001, when the index begun.
“January pending sales, though still higher than one year ago, remain much lower than expected given that a large number of potential buyers are eligible for the expanded home buyer tax credit,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “Moreover, the abnormally severe and prolonged winter weather, which affected large regions of the US, hampered shopping activity in February.”
Regionally, the West got the biggest drop in pending sales where pending sales declined 13.2 percent from December. However, the pending sales index is 1.4 percent above its January 2009 reading.
In the Midwest, pending sales dropped 8.9 percent from December but 11.8 percent above same month last year’s level.
In the Northeast, the index declined 8.7 percent but is 20.5 percent above January 2009 reading.
In the South, there was a 2.1 percent decline from December and 18 percent above the same month last year’s level.
“We will see weak near-term sales followed by a likely surge of existing-home sales in April, May and June,” Yun said. “The real question is what happens in the second half of the year. If there is sufficient job creation, housing can become self-sustaining with stable to modestly rising home prices because inventory has been trending downward.”