The housing and home construction markets continued and will further feel the beating at least until the end of the year. This was according to economists who spoke Thursday at a forecast conference sponsored by the National Association of Home Builders.
The economists said the worsening housing market facilitated the U.S. economy decline and into a recession that will continue through June. They said high oil prices will continue to slow down consumer spending, and the ongoing credit crisis and stricter policies will make home financing difficult which will stall a housing recovery until at least 2009.
Declines in home prices negatively affect homeowners' wealth, and some mortgage borrowers have found that the value of their homes has fallen below the price of their mortgages, sending more homeowners into foreclosure.
An economist forecasted that Americans will lose $400 billion in lost home value.
"All this downward momentum in home prices is really screwing up the financial markets," said NAHB chief economist David Seiders, adding, "Housing production will continue to drag on the economy until the first quarter of 2009."
Though the tax rebates from the government's economic stimulus package are expected to helpincrease the consumer spending and confidence, any recovery in housing is forecasted to be slow - a bad sign for the overall economy.
"After the stimulus checks take their effect, the economy will need something else to support it in the first quarter of 2009, or else the economy is in trouble," said Seiders.
A real estate market's comeback may come earlier than a homebuilders' recovery, according to the economists.
"The explosion of single-family building permits in 2003 to 2005 produced an unsustainable, unprecedented run-up in the building economy," said Seiders. Together with the collapse of the housing market, a big surplus of unsold, unoccupied new homes flooded the market.
The National Association of Realtors report released Tuesday, there were 4.1 million available for sale, which is about 9.9 month supply. The high inventory directly competes with the builders, as they have to limit their construction of new homes until supply and demand levels are more stable.
But economists continued to be optimistic about a turnaround for builders in 2009.